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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lausanne and FC Sion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne and FC Sion finished level at 2-2 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.05 xG and FC Sion 1.52 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.24 / defence 1.07 against FC Sion attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 50% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 29%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 62%, FC Sion 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.36 PPG, FC Sion 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights