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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Sion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Sion 2-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.97 xG and FC Sion 1.12 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against FC Sion attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 63/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 56% | Draw 23% | FC Sion 21%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, FC Sion 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Sion's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.37 PPG, FC Sion 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights