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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Luzern run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lausanne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern beat Lausanne 0-4 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.38 xG and FC Luzern 1.16 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne fell 2.4 short of their projected output. FC Luzern outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.17 / defence 0.91 against FC Luzern attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 64% | Draw 18% | FC Luzern 17%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a FC Luzern win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, FC Luzern 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Luzern's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.35 PPG, FC Luzern 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Luzern (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights