🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant FC Luzern run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Lausanne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern beat Lausanne 1-4 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.95 xG and FC Luzern 1.23 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Luzern outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against FC Luzern attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 53% | Draw 24% | FC Luzern 23%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Luzern win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 56%, FC Luzern 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.29 PPG, FC Luzern 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Luzern (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights