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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Lausanne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne and FC Lugano finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.94 xG and FC Lugano 1.33 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.9 short of their projected output. FC Lugano landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.29 / defence 1.01 against FC Lugano attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 52% | Draw 22% | FC Lugano 26%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 62%, FC Lugano 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Lugano's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.36 PPG, FC Lugano 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. FC Lugano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights