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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Basel 1893.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 5-1 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.64 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.69 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.22 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 38% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 39%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, FC Basel 1893 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights