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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out Lausanne 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat Lausanne 2-3 at Stade de la Tuilière, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.23 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.39 / defence 0.79, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 29% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 46%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 55%, FC Basel 1893 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.32 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights