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Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out BSC Young Boys 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat BSC Young Boys 3-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.55 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.93 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BSC Young Boys outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 51% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 22%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 55%, BSC Young Boys 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights