Lausanne 1-2 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Lausanne welcome BSC Young Boys to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade de la Tuilière — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de la Tuilière.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BSC Young Boys stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Lausanne) versus 1.60 (BSC Young Boys). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lausanne, 1 for BSC Young Boys and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 53% versus BSC Young Boys 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 55% | BSC Young Boys 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.45 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.037 / defence 0.697 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.774 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.221. Lausanne's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Lausanne games / 53 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 55% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 15%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | BSC Young Boys 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Lausanne (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 40% | BSC Young Boys 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 55% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Lausanne 1.45 / BSC Young Boys 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.037 / def 0.697 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.774 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.66
BSC Young Boys xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Lausanne 1 - 2 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 55% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lausanne and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
Record (3 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 1 | BSC Young Boys 1W.
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in?
Lausanne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 1.04x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.29
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.11
0.66
BSC Young Boys xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
4%
28.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.66 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 16D 22L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 29W 15D 14L from 58 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.72 PPG from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 9W 10D 10L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.74 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 29W 15D 14L in their last 58 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or BSC Young Boys away?
Lausanne's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.72 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Lausanne 2-2 BSC Young Boys.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 45%, BSC Young Boys 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Lausanne) and 45% (BSC Young Boys).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; BSC Young Boys in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play BSC Young Boys?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lausanne's recent matches and 52% of BSC Young Boys's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Lausanne's recent games and 45% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BSC Young Boys defy the odds to beat Lausanne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat Lausanne 1-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.45 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.66 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.04 / defence 0.70 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 55% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 15%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a BSC Young Boys win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 55%, BSC Young Boys 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.