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Super League · Relegation Round - 3

Kick-off

Wed 14 May 2025

19:30

Venue

Stadion Letzigrund

Competition

Super League

Switzerland

Status

FT
📰

Dominant Grasshoppers run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Yverdon Sport.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grasshoppers beat Yverdon Sport 5-0 at Stadion Letzigrund, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.68 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.11 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Grasshoppers beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yverdon Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.90 / defence 1.33, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 50% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 25%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 45%, Yverdon Sport 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 1.01 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grasshoppers win broke the near-deadlock. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights

Model Over/Under 2.5 landed as modelled — 53% Over 2.5 probability, 5 goals scored.
Model BTTS bucked the model — 55% projected, one side was shut out.
Trading Trading data backed up — the sides average 51% Over 2.5 historically, and this game went over.

⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.