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Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Grasshoppers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat Grasshoppers 0-2 at Letzigrund Stadion, Relegation Group - 35, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.43 xG and Servette FC 1.88 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Grasshoppers fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Servette FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 27% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 46%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 53%, Servette FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Servette FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward. Servette FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights