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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grasshoppers and Lausanne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grasshoppers and Lausanne finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.17 xG and Lausanne 1.40 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Grasshoppers beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Lausanne attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 29% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 41%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 41%, Lausanne 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 1.03 PPG, Lausanne 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights