🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat Grasshoppers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat Grasshoppers 0-1 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 2.15 xG and FC Sion 1.61 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Grasshoppers fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against FC Sion attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 49% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 28%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 54%, FC Sion 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Sion's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 1.09 PPG, FC Sion 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights