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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grasshoppers and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 28, as Grasshoppers and FC Sion drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.75 xG and FC Sion 1.03 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against FC Sion attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 54% | Draw 25% | FC Sion 22%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 48%, FC Sion 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 0.96 PPG, FC Sion 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights