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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Grasshoppers edge out FC Aarau 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grasshoppers beat FC Aarau 2-1 at Letzigrund Stadion, Final, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.57 xG and FC Aarau 1.47 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against FC Aarau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 66/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 38% | Draw 28% | FC Aarau 34%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 67%, FC Aarau 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Aarau's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Grasshoppers arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights