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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Zurich edge out Yverdon Sport 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat Yverdon Sport 2-1 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.47 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.96 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.67 / defence 0.97 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 48% | Draw 30% | Yverdon Sport 23%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 48%, Yverdon Sport 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.50 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Zurich win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights