🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC Zurich edge out Yverdon Sport 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat Yverdon Sport 1-0 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.14 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.06 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Yverdon Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 36% | Draw 31% | Yverdon Sport 32%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 48%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights