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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Zurich defy the odds to beat Servette FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat Servette FC 2-1 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.44 xG and Servette FC 1.97 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Servette FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.87 / defence 1.39 against Servette FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 27% | Draw 24% | Servette FC 49%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FC Zurich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 64%, Servette FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.36 PPG, Servette FC 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Zurich win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights