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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lausanne defy the odds to beat FC Zurich 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Zurich 1-2 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.68 xG and Lausanne 1.54 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.95 / defence 1.25 against Lausanne attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 41% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 36%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 63%, Lausanne 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.35 PPG, Lausanne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights