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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Zurich and Lausanne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 30, as FC Zurich and Lausanne drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.28 xG and Lausanne 1.52 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Lausanne attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 32% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 42%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 52%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lausanne's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.57 PPG, Lausanne 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Zurich (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights