🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Zurich and FC Winterthur share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as FC Zurich and FC Winterthur drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 2.34 xG and FC Winterthur 1.31 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against FC Winterthur attack 0.82 / defence 1.41, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 60% | Draw 19% | FC Winterthur 20%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 65%, FC Winterthur 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights