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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Zurich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Zurich 0-4 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.61 xG and FC Thun 1.74 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Zurich fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Thun outscored their 1.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against FC Thun attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/3 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 33% | Draw 28% | FC Thun 39%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 67%, FC Thun 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Thun's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Zurich managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights