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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Zurich cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC ST. Gallen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat FC ST. Gallen 3-1 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.32 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.11 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Zurich beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.16 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 23% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 54%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Zurich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 64%, FC ST. Gallen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.43 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Zurich win broke the near-deadlock. FC Zurich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights