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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Zurich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Zurich 0-2 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.40 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Zurich fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 32%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 49%, FC ST. Gallen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.58 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights