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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat FC Zurich 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Zurich 2-3 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.57 xG and FC Sion 1.22 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Sion outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against FC Sion attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 45% | Draw 25% | FC Sion 29%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 60%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.39 PPG, FC Sion 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Zurich (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights