🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as FC Zurich defy the odds to beat FC Luzern 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat FC Luzern 3-2 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.59 xG and FC Luzern 1.83 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Zurich beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against FC Luzern attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 34% | Draw 23% | FC Luzern 44%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Zurich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 64%, FC Luzern 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.32 PPG, FC Luzern 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Zurich win broke the near-deadlock. FC Zurich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. FC Luzern (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights