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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Zurich 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Zurich 3-4 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.31 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.56 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC Zurich beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 32% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 43%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 64%, FC Basel 1893 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. FC Zurich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights