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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Zurich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Zurich 0-4 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.20 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.78 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Zurich fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.26 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 25% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 50%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 52%, FC Basel 1893 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.55 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights