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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Zurich 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Zurich 0-1 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.14 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.63 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Zurich fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.43 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 24% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 47%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 48%, FC Basel 1893 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.55 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights