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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.73 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.07 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Yverdon Sport outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.90 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 52% | Draw 25% | Yverdon Sport 23%, with FC Winterthur to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 62%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.15 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights