FC Winterthur 0-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Winterthur at 57%, yet in-form Yverdon Sport provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Yverdon Sport travel to Stadion Schützenwiese to take on FC Winterthur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Winterthur — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Winterthur have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Winterthur's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Schützenwiese this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Winterthur are significantly better at Stadion Schützenwiese than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Yverdon Sport have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Yverdon Sport are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Winterthur register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Yverdon Sport in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Winterthur, 0 for Yverdon Sport and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with FC Winterthur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Winterthur in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Winterthur 78% and Yverdon Sport 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Winterthur 70% | Yverdon Sport 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 1.94 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.898 / defence 0.856 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.986 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.311. Data: 35 FC Winterthur games / 35 Yverdon Sport games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 57% | Draw 22% | Yverdon Sport 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Yverdon Sport 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC Winterthur (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Winterthur are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yverdon Sport (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Winterthur 70% | Yverdon Sport 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 57% | Draw 22% | Yverdon Sport 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Winterthur 1.94 / Yverdon Sport 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.898 / def 0.856 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.986 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: FC Winterthur (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Yverdon Sport xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Winterthur 0 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 57% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Winterthur the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Record (3 meetings): FC Winterthur 1W | Draws 2 | Yverdon Sport 0W.
What form are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport in?
FC Winterthur (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Winterthur's attack rating (0.90) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus FC Winterthur's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Winterthur Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.55
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
3.04
1.11
Yverdon Sport xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
32.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.11 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Winterthur come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 10D 16L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Winterthur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.18 PPG from 40 outings (13W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Winterthur on 1.30 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Winterthur's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.35 points per game from 20 outings (1W 4D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Winterthur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.30 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Winterthur's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.70 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Yverdon Sport won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Winterthur's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Winterthur
4
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Winterthur have won 1, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when FC Winterthur 2-2 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Winterthur at 75%, Yverdon Sport at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Winterthur and 55% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Winterthur play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Winterthur's games and 65% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Winterthur's matches and 55% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC Winterthur have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Winterthur's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.94 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.11 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Winterthur fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Yverdon Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 57% | Draw 22% | Yverdon Sport 21%, with FC Winterthur to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 70%, Yverdon Sport 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.30 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.