FC Winterthur 2-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Winterthur at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Yverdon Sport travel to Stadion Schützenwiese to take on FC Winterthur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Winterthur — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Winterthur's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Schützenwiese this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Winterthur are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Winterthur, 0 for Yverdon Sport and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Winterthur in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Winterthur 88% and Yverdon Sport 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Winterthur 76% | Yverdon Sport 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 2.39 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 1.116 / defence 1.280 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.758 / defence 1.507. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.190. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.507 — this is suppressing FC Winterthur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 FC Winterthur games / 25 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 65% | Draw 18% | Yverdon Sport 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Yverdon Sport 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Winterthur (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Winterthur are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Winterthur 90% | Yverdon Sport 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 65% | Draw 18% | Yverdon Sport 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Winterthur 2.39 / Yverdon Sport 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 1.116 / def 1.280 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.758 / def 1.507 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: FC Winterthur (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Yverdon Sport xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Winterthur 2 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 65% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Winterthur the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Record (2 meetings): FC Winterthur 0W | Draws 2 | Yverdon Sport 0W.
What form are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport in?
FC Winterthur (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Winterthur's attack rating (1.12) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus FC Winterthur's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Winterthur Win
65%
1.54
18%
5.45
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
3.55
1.15
Yverdon Sport xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
9%
10.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
64.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.15 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Winterthur come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 7D 9L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Winterthur on 1.36 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Winterthur's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.50 points per game from 12 outings (1W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Winterthur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.28 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Winterthur's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.75 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Yverdon Sport won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Winterthur's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Winterthur
4
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Winterthur have won 1, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when FC Winterthur 2-2 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Winterthur at 83%, Yverdon Sport at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Winterthur and 58% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Winterthur play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of FC Winterthur's games and 75% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Winterthur's matches and 58% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC Winterthur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Winterthur edge out Yverdon Sport 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Winterthur beat Yverdon Sport 2-1 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 2.39 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.15 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.76 / defence 1.51, drawn from 61/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 65% | Draw 18% | Yverdon Sport 17%, with FC Winterthur to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 76%, Yverdon Sport 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.36 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Winterthur win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.