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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Winterthur and Servette FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 28, as FC Winterthur and Servette FC drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.61 xG and Servette FC 2.58 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Servette FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.85 / defence 1.40 against Servette FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 22% | Draw 21% | Servette FC 57%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 66%, Servette FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights