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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Winterthur cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Servette FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Winterthur beat Servette FC 4-2 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.58 xG and Servette FC 2.20 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC Winterthur beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.93 / defence 1.41 against Servette FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 28% | Draw 20% | Servette FC 52%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual FC Winterthur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 61%, Servette FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with FC Winterthur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights