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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Zurich cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat FC Winterthur 1-3 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.21 xG and FC Zurich 1.36 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Zurich outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against FC Zurich attack 1.01 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 31% | Draw 30% | FC Zurich 39%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 55%, FC Zurich 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.00 PPG, FC Zurich 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Zurich win broke the near-deadlock. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Zurich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights