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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Winterthur 0-3 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.40 xG and FC Thun 2.61 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Winterthur fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.92 / defence 1.35 against FC Thun attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 17% | Draw 21% | FC Thun 62%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 84%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Thun's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Thun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights