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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Winterthur 1-4 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.38 xG and FC Thun 1.86 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Thun outscored their 1.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.95 / defence 1.34 against FC Thun attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 29% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 49%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 88%, FC Thun 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

FC Thun's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights