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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 1-5 hammering of FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Winterthur 1-5 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.31 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.84 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.05 / defence 0.78, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 25% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 48%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 64%, FC ST. Gallen 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights