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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out FC Winterthur 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Winterthur 2-3 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.27 xG and FC Sion 1.44 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Sion outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 33% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 40%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 57%, FC Sion 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 0.93 PPG, FC Sion 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights