🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Winterthur 0-2 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.64 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.87 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Winterthur fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 32% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 41%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 65%, FC Basel 1893 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights