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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Winterthur 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Winterthur 1-2 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.46 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.82 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 31% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 46%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 62%, FC Basel 1893 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights