FC Winterthur 1-6 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Basel 1893 (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Winterthur face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as FC Winterthur welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stadion Schützenwiese. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Winterthur have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Schützenwiese, FC Winterthur have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. FC Basel 1893's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC Winterthur's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour FC Basel 1893, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for FC Winterthur.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Basel 1893 have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Winterthur in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Winterthur 69% versus FC Basel 1893 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Winterthur 65% | FC Basel 1893 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 0.99 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.759 / defence 1.048 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.291 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.116. FC Winterthur's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Basel 1893 have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 FC Winterthur games / 43 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 25% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 49%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | FC Basel 1893 2.04. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Winterthur 50% | FC Basel 1893 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 25% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Winterthur 0.99 / FC Basel 1893 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.759 / def 1.048 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.291 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Basel 1893 xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Winterthur 1 - 6 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 25% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893?
Record (4 meetings): FC Winterthur 0W | Draws 1 | FC Basel 1893 3W.
What form are FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Winterthur (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Winterthur's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Winterthur's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
25%
4.05
26%
3.86
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
2.50
1.51
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.51 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Winterthur come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 11D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.35 PPG from 48 outings (18W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Winterthur on 1.17 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Winterthur's home form reads 11W 5D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — FC Winterthur are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.31 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Winterthur's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.58 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have FC Winterthur or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Winterthur have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when FC Basel 1893 won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Winterthur's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 0W 0D 6L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Winterthur
1
Draws
9
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Winterthur have won 0, FC Basel 1893 have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Winterthur 0-2 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Winterthur see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Winterthur 67%, FC Basel 1893 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Winterthur) and 54% (FC Basel 1893). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Winterthur play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Winterthur's games and 50% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Winterthur's matches and 54% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Winterthur have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 1-6 hammering of FC Winterthur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Winterthur 1-6 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 0.99 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.51 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.51 projection by 4.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.29 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 25% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 49%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 65%, FC Basel 1893 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.17 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.