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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Winterthur and BSC Young Boys share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 2, as FC Winterthur and BSC Young Boys drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.49 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.19 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 44% | Draw 26% | BSC Young Boys 30%, with FC Winterthur to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 54%, BSC Young Boys 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Winterthur's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights