FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Vaduz at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as FC Vaduz welcome FC Zurich to Rheinpark Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Vaduz stand at 1W 0D 4L from 5 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Vaduz have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Zurich have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Zurich's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (FC Vaduz) versus 1.00 (FC Zurich). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Vaduz register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, FC Zurich in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC Vaduz trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
FC Zurich trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Vaduz 100% and FC Zurich 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Vaduz 100% | FC Zurich 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Vaduz 2.90 xG and FC Zurich 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Vaduz attack 1.224 / defence 1.246 | FC Zurich attack 0.872 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.955 / away 1.846. FC Zurich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing FC Vaduz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 FC Vaduz games / 39 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Vaduz 57% | Draw 17% | FC Zurich 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Vaduz 1.75 | Draw 5.88 | FC Zurich 3.85. The model has a clear lean to FC Vaduz (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 82% | Total xG 4.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 82% reflects that both xG figures (2.90 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Vaduz as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 87% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 82% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Vaduz 100% | FC Zurich 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rheinpark Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Vaduz 57% | Draw 17% | FC Zurich 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 82% | xG FC Vaduz 2.90 / FC Zurich 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC Vaduz attack 1.224 / def 1.246 | FC Zurich attack 0.872 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.955 / away 1.846 • Poisson stance: FC Vaduz (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.90
FC Vaduz xG
Expected Goals
2.01
FC Zurich xG
82%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Rheinpark Stadion.
Where is FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Rheinpark Stadion.
What competition is FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Vaduz a 57% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 26% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Vaduz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 82% probability that both FC Vaduz and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and FC Zurich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Zurich in?
FC Vaduz (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. FC Zurich (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Vaduz's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.90. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Vaduz's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 6.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.2%), 3-2 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Vaduz Win
57%
1.76
17%
5.81
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.2%
Home win
3 – 2
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.90
FC Vaduz xG
Total xG
4.91
2.01
FC Zurich xG
1.76
57%
Home win
5.81
17%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
54%
Over 4.5
1.85
46%
Under 4.5
2.17
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
82%
BTTS Yes
1.22
18%
BTTS No
5.50
Clean Sheet
13%
7.44
5%
18.27
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
1%
70.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.3%.
How many goals are FC Vaduz and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 2.90 expected goals for FC Vaduz and 2.01 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 4.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Vaduz's recent record stands at 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Vaduz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 3L across 5 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Zurich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Zurich by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Vaduz heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Vaduz are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.60 scored and 2.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Zurich in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Vaduz
Early Season
FC Zurich
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Vaduz have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Vaduz at 100%, FC Zurich at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Vaduz and 100% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Vaduz home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Vaduz play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Vaduz's games and 80% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Vaduz's matches and 100% of FC Zurich's.
Do FC Vaduz and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Vaduz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.