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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Servette FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat Servette FC 3-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.33 xG and Servette FC 1.77 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Servette FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 27% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 46%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 88%, Servette FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights