🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lausanne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat Lausanne 5-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.51 xG and Lausanne 1.28 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Lausanne attack 0.84 / defence 0.76, drawn from 23/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 41% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 30%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, Lausanne 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights