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Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat Lausanne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Lausanne 2-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.36 xG and Lausanne 1.65 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Lausanne attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 1/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 31% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 43%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 100%, Lausanne 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Thun 3.00 PPG, Lausanne 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Thun win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.