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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Thun and Grasshoppers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun and Grasshoppers finished level at 1-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.41 xG and Grasshoppers 1.36 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Grasshoppers attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 37% | Draw 29% | Grasshoppers 35%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 100%, Grasshoppers 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Thun managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Grasshoppers conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights