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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Zurich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Zurich 4-2 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.58 xG and FC Zurich 1.37 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against FC Zurich attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 18/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 42% | Draw 24% | FC Zurich 33%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 72%, FC Zurich 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. FC Zurich (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights