FC Thun vs FC Sion – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stockhorn Arena plays host to FC Thun versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 19 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.90 conceded. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Thun are significantly better at Stockhorn Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Sion have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, FC Sion are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Thun lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with FC Sion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Sion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 69% and FC Sion 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Thun 73% | FC Sion 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.01 xG and FC Sion 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.667 / defence 1.036 | FC Sion attack 1.094 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.787 / away 1.779. FC Thun's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 FC Thun games / 40 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 18% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 61%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | FC Sion 1.64. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Thun 50% | FC Sion 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 18% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Thun 1.01 / FC Sion 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.667 / def 1.036 | FC Sion attack 1.094 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.787 / away 1.779 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
2.02
FC Sion xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Sion is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Sion part of?
FC Thun vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 18% chance of winning, FC Sion a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Thun and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
Record (5 meetings): FC Thun 3W | Draws 0 | FC Sion 2W.
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in?
FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. FC Sion (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Thun's attack at 0.67x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (1.09x) against FC Thun's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
18%
5.48
21%
4.75
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.02
2.02
FC Sion xG
5.48
18%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
13%
7.51
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
2%
41.12
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for FC Thun and 2.02 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Thun's recent record stands at 26W 4D 15L from 45 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 9L across 45 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for FC Thun against 1.73 for FC Sion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Thun have managed 12W 3D 7L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 9W 8D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Thun are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.78 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Sion in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 26W 4D 15L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 21W 15D 9L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Sion away?
FC Thun's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.77 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.59 PPG.
Have FC Thun or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Thun have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, FC Sion in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Thun
0
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 3, FC Sion have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when FC Sion 3-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Sion?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Thun 64%, FC Sion 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Thun and 68% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 32%; FC Thun have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Thun's games and 64% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Thun's matches and 68% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Thun and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.